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the.pinklemonade · 原帖

A married couple in China discovered that they were in the same photo as teenagers 11 years before they met.

While going through some old photographs recently, married couple Mr. Ye and Ms. Xue, from Chengdu, China made an astonishing discovery. Back in the year 2000, 11 years before they actually met, they were captured together taking the same photograph, having both been at the same place at the same time, without ever knowing it. Thoughts ?

the.pinklemonade · 原帖

A married couple in China discovered that they were in the same photo as teenagers 11 years before they met.

While going through some old photographs recently, married couple Mr. Ye and Ms. Xue, from Chengdu, China made an astonishing discovery. Back in the year 2000, 11 years before they actually met, they were captured together taking the same photograph, having both been at the same place at the same time, without ever knowing it. Thoughts ?

独立、等概率随机相遇模型下的估算

理论依据：随机游走研究移动轨迹与相遇问题。泊松分布近似描述独立、低概率的相遇次数。

计算假设：人口 N＝2500 万，每天 300 次独立且等概率的相遇机会，参数保持不变，五十年按 18,250 天。

计算：λ＝300／25,000,000 次／天，P（零次重逢）＝exp（−λ×18,250）≈80.33%。此为思想实验估算。

来源：Aldous & Fill《Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs》；NIST《Poisson Distribution》

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早期原型 · 四个人，六次相遇

Citywalk · 真实现场影像

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